Word this morning is that BP’s top kill effort to stop the oil well leak in the Gulf has worked, at least so far. With Obama’s big photo-op just hours away, that got me wondering if this helps or hurts him.
In the short-term, I think it helps. Of course it does: he shows up to be seen taking responsibility, just as the leak is fixed (if it is). It’s not unalloyed goodness, though, because the timing will have all the talking heads yammering about the timing of it. If the leak were stopped at almost any other time, the sole focus would be on the specifics of that (how it happened, what it means, what happens now, etc.). Instead, the focus will be at least partially on the optics of the president’s trip, and a focus on the underlying politics — whether the pundits cheer him on or not — is not good for him.
In the medium to long term, I think it may actually hurt him. An ongoing leak would be bad, but if it is now gone, the drama of fixing it is too. Instead of breathless reporting about what BP is doing or planning, all we have left is the impact. There may not be any more oil leaking, but there are already millions of gallons in the water, and it’s only just started affecting the shore. To make a Katrina analogy, the storm has finally passed, but the flood waters are still rising, and will be for the foreseeable future.
So now the news will fill (even more) with photos of oil-soaked wildlife and Monday-morning quarterbacking of the government response.
BP is involved in the cleanup of course, but the government’s role in the cleanup is much bigger than it was in the leak itself, and therefore its actions will be scrutinized much more closely. There are plenty of people on the Gulf coast, from Gov. Jindal down, that are frustrated with the government’s efforts and lack thereof. Expect to see them and their complaints featured more prominently now.
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