Townhall Debate Lies and Spin (Update, but still a rough draft)

[Note:  I am posting this now, in draft form, both to get something up on the site and to serve me as a working outline.  I will remove the notes when I get it up in a more final form.]

It has taken me longer than I anticipated to get this post up, but here it finally is.  I have been busier with work this week than last, but it has also been a more difficult task than creating the list of Biden’s gaffes and lies from the VP debate.  The VP debate was more confrontational, more fact based (as opposed to vague policy statements), and most importantly was more eagerly analyzed for misstatements by Biden due to his history of gaffes.  The largest part of my task was simply compiling a list of what was already out there.

The townhall presidential debate, on the other hand, had fewer factual statements (true or false) than the VP debate, with the candidates giving many answers straight from their stump speeches.  Whether or not I agree with a policy, I am not going to call it a lie.  That said, there were still ‘untruths’ and misstatements by both candidates (I say ‘untruths’ because in addition to outright lies, there were misleading claims that were so heavily spun that they barely have a nodding acquaintance, if that, with the truth).

As I mentioned previously, I am attempting to cover both McCain and Obama here.  As with the Biden article, I would greatly appreciate input in the form of comments or email if you know of something I missed, or if you see something on the list that is clearly wrong. Note, however, that you need to provide me something more substantial to support your point than policy differences or campaign rhetoric.  I welcome input from across the political spectrum.

Also please note that this is not strictly speaking a ‘fact check.’  If you don’t see an item on the list you were wondering about, assume it was true (or ask me about it), because I will not be addressing controversial statements that were (at least arguably) correct, only pointing out statements that were wrong.

Because this I am covering both candidates, I am using more left-leaning sources than I otherwise might.  Criticisms of Obama from the Left, though, are more persuasive than those from the Right (and vice versa for McCain).

Since Obama won the coin toss to go first at the debate, I will start with him.  (Debate quotations are from CNN’s transcript.)

Obama

[Note: the list is currently in extremely abbreviated form, without explanation or references; this will be the primary difference between the current draft and the finished version.  Don't read too much into something being in the current version, as many on the list are at least partially true (with caveats).]

1. Obama, referring to the current financial crisis, said, “Let’s, first of all, understand that the biggest problem in this whole process was the deregulation of the financial system.”  Obama mentions deregulation numerous other times, blaming both Bush and McCain.  At best, this is a distortion, especially in the context of the financial crisis.  At least by 2006, McCain was demanding increased regulatory oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  FactCheck.org also calls Obama out on blaming deregulation, as there were numerous causes to the crisis.
2. “[W]hat I want to do is provide a middle class tax cut to 95 percent of working Americans.”  Obama often makes this claim, but it is misleading.  Analyses have shown that, at most, 81% of tax payers, not 95%, would see tax decreases under Obama’s plan.
   • UPDATE (10/13): It’s a lie, actually.  According to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal, Obama’s plan is not a tax break, but rather a tax credit paid for by his tax increases on the wealthy.  As Carol Liebau says:

   Obama’s “tax cuts” have nothing to do with letting people who earn money through their own hard work or talents keep more of it.  Rather, it’s about punishing the people who create jobs, and allowing the government to redistribute income to make all of us more “equal.”

   Even if this could be characterized as a tax ‘cut’ it would cover, at most, 81% of tax payers, not 95% (as noted above in the stricken out text).

3. “[T]wo years ago, I said that we’ve got a sub-prime lending crisis that has to be dealt with.”  This is a convenient claim — and one Biden repeated at the VP debate — but there is no evidence to back up the claim.  As I said in the VP debate article, “all I have been able to come up with is an Obama advisor warning against ‘over-regulating subprime mortgages,’ and criticism of Obama’s plan with regard to the subprime mess.  It is easy for Obama to claim, but I won’t believe it until I see some proof beyond the word of Obama or Biden.”
4. “I wrote to Secretary Paulson, I wrote to Federal Reserve Chairman [Ben] Bernanke, and told them this is something we have to deal with, and nobody did anything about it.”  Although it is not clear from the context at the debate, in the first debate Obama referred to the warning in number 3 and to this letter as separate events.  He did write a letter to Bernanke and Paulson in March of 2007 — which is closer to a 1 1/2 years ago than to two — but he misrepresents the contents of the letter.  Again quoting from the VP article: “Obama sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson in March of 2007, in which he addressed the rising defaults by low-income individuals on subprime mortgages.  Obama’s primary concerns in the letter are preventing foreclosures and attacking ‘predatory lending practices.’”
5. “[A]ctually I’m cutting more than I’m spending so that it will be a net spending cut.”  This is a blatant lie.  According to FactCheck, “Obama’s proposals would produce a net deficit increase of $286 billion.”
6. “We’re going to have to explore new ways to get more oil, and that includes offshore drilling.”  Obama has consistently been against offshore drilling.  On August 1, 2008, he voiced tentative support for a deal that partially opened the door for offshore drilling, but still made it plain that he was against it.  His statement at the debate appears to be the first time he has actually spoken in favor of offshore drilling.
7. “It includes telling the oil companies, that currently have 68 million acres that they’re not using, that either you use them or you lose them.”  There are in fact that many acres of land that are leased to oil companies and do not currently have active wells on them.  They are, however, being actively explored and prepared for use.
8. “[T]he computer was originally invented by a bunch of government scientists who were trying to figure out, for defense purposes, how to communicate.”  Taken as a whole, it appears that Obama meant to say the Internet, not the computer.  Although scientist working at the University of Pennsylvania under a government grant invented the first electronic computer, ENIAC, it was not the first computer.  From the University of Pennsylvania ENIAC page:  “In 1839, an Englishman Charles Babbage designed and developed the first true mechanical digital computer.”  Furthermore, the purpose for creating ENIAC was to compute artillery firing tables, not communication.
9. “I favor nuclear power as one component of our overall energy mix.”  Obama has included nuclear power in his energy plan, but continues to express reservations about it with regard to handling waste.  ‘Favor’ is probably much too strong a word for him to use, but otherwise the statement is not demonstrably false.
10. Obama claimed that McCain “voted 23 times against alternative fuels, 23 times.”  McCain did cast votes against alternative fuels, but only 11 times.
11. “[W]e have three percent of the world’s oil reserves and we use 25 percent of the world’s oil.”  This statement is superficially true, as to proven reserves, but is so misleading that it has to be labeled false.  First, the U.S. actually produces 10% of the world’s oil.  Even more important, though is how ‘reserves’ is defined.  If you include oil that it is not currently commercially viable to extract, such as oil shale and tar sands, then the U.S. jumps way past Saudi Arabia, the current leader in oil reserves:  conservative estimates of “recoverable oil from oil shale in the Green River Formation is three times greater than the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.”  Technology exists to extract this oil, but it is not currently commercially feasible.
12. “We’re spending $10 billion a month in Iraq at a time when the Iraqis have a $79 billion surplus, $79 billion.”  This is false.  The $79 billion figure comes from an old estimate.  The actual number is currently $29 billion.


Obama and Odinga

13. “So when genocide is happening, when ethnic cleansing is happening somewhere around the world and we stand idly by, that diminishes us.”  Possibily hypocritical, but it is not known.  Obama has some ties to current Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga.  There is dispute over how close those ties are, with Obama denying a close relationship and others claiming that Odinga has frequent direct contact with Obama or his staff.  There are also photographs and video that suggest Obama helped Odinga campaign for president.  Although some claim that the connection proves the debunked claim that Obama is Muslim or favors Muslim causes, the real significance is (or should be) that Odinga has engaged in ethnic cleansing, with Genocide Watch considering Kenya to be on the verge of descending into genocide.  I have not provided any links, and if you want to learn more you can research on your own.  Keep in mind that even if Obama has a closer relationship with Odinga than he claims, that does not mean that he approves of Odinga’s methods and would not act to prevent a genocide caused by Odinga.
14. “[W]e got distracted, we diverted resources, and ultimately bin Laden escaped, set up base camps in the mountains of Pakistan in the northwest provinces there.”  Unless Obama knows something that no one else does, this is false.  The war in Afghanistan began in October of 2001.  The war in Iraq began about a year and a half later, in March of 2003.  Even accepting Obama’s premise that Iraq was a distraction despite the fact that the war in Afghanistan continued (only recently seeing an increase in casualties), it is highly unlikely that invading Iraq 1 1/2 years after entering Afghanistan made the difference in capturing bin Laden.
15. Obama claims that aql Qaeda is “stronger now than at any time since 2001.”  False.  They have lost much of their leadership, they appear to be having more difficulty finding recruits, and they are unable to carry out attacks on the same scale as in 2001.
16. “You know, back in April, I put out a statement saying that the situation in Georgia was unsustainable because you had Russian peacekeepers in these territories that were under dispute.”  All I can find on this is a statement, released in March, on the April NATO talks.  Here is the meat of it (or what would be the meat, if there were any):

Ukraine and Georgia have also been developing their ties with NATO. Their leaders have declared their readiness to advance a NATO Membership Action Plan, MAP, to prepare for the rights and obligations of membership. They are working to consolidate democratic reforms and to undertake new responsibilities in their relationship with the Alliance. I welcome the desire and actions of these countries to seek closer ties with NATO and hope that NATO responds favorably to their request, consistent with its criteria for membership. Whether Ukraine and Georgia ultimately join NATO will be a decision for the members of the alliance and the citizens of those countries, after a period of open and democratic debate. But they should receive our help and encouragement as they continue to develop ties to Atlantic and European institutions.

As with the warning Obama claimed to have sent with regard to the subprime crisis (see number 4), I’ll believe it when I see it.

17. “When President Bush decided we’re not going to talk to Iran, we’re not going to talk to North Korea, you know what happened? Iran went from zero centrifuges to develop nuclear weapons to 4,000. North Korea quadrupled its nuclear capability.”  The Six-Party Talks involving North Korea have been ongoing since 2003.  The administration has also made it clear that direct talks with Iran are desirable, with the precondition that Iran suspending its enrichment and reprocessing of nuclear fuel.  I have also been unable to find sources to confirm that North Korea has quadrupled its nuclear capability or that Iran has 4,000 centrifuges (although Ahmadinejad recently claimed that they are installing 6,000).

McCain

1. Fannie and Freddie are the (sole) cause
2. $860 billion in new spending
3. $5k tax credit to everyone
4. Obama voted to increase taxes 94 times
5. Obama will fine small businesses and parents
6. stood up to Reagan re: Lebanon