Vladimir Putin clearly wants to make Russia back into a superpower in the mold of the old Soviet Union. Eclipsed by the growth of China and strengthening of the European Union, Russia — before this summer — had become an afterthought on the world stage.
Oil rich and hungry for glory, Russia’s invasion of Georgia was a naked grab to reclaim influence over its closest neighbors (directly, through military might, or indirectly by destabilizing the region). In hindsight, it is clear that the Russian invasion force was staged and ready before Georgia attacked (or fired back at) forces in South Ossetia. The large force that rushed into Georgia was clearly not comprised of ‘peacekeepers,’ nor is it credible that its presence in the region was merely coincidence.
I think that the outrage of the international community caught Russia, and Putin, somewhat by surprise. Russia has had a contentious relationship with its neighbors since the break up of the Soviet Union, often involving military force to one degree or another. This was the first time, however, that Russia had blatantly resorted to military might against a target that was supported by the West. The United States had even advocated for Georgia’s inclusion in NATO — which is likely one explanation of the timing of the attack, as a now-or-never opportunity.
With most of the important members of the international community becoming distrustful or even hostile toward Russia in varying degrees, diplomatic means of attaining greater influence became much less likely. Even China, approached to recognize the independence of the break-away Georgian regions, rebuffed Russia.
So now we see the worrisome sight of Putin meeting with Hugo Chavez, agreeing to sell Venezuela arms, aid it with its ‘civilian’ nuclear program, and vowing that Russia will assert itself in South America. This is clearly a direct response to the West’s ‘meddling’ in the Georgia crisis. What else might Russia do to ‘teach us a lesson’ for this interference? Putin is already reluctant to allow further talk of UN sanction against Iran. There does not seem to be any love lost between Iran and Russia, but Putin will not hesitate to use Iran against the US if the situation were to arise.
It is pathetic, but genuinely frightening, that Putin — in his quest to recapture the glory and might of the USSR — has been reduced to courting the bullies and outcasts of the world. That sort do not need even encouragement. If they have the active support of a Russia flush with oil money, there is no hope of diplomatic pressure dissuading them from their extreme agendas.
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